Week 16 NFL Betting Primer: Best Over/Under, Spread, Teaser and Prop Bets

Merry Christmas. May our holidays be filled with more profits through Week 16.

Over/Unders: 10-3-1

Spreads: 8-6

Teasers: 7-7

Props: 6-8

Overall Record*: 31-24-1, +7.82 units

*Each over/under bet graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers

Over/Under: 45.5

As a present, the NFL has gifted its new “cancel culture” bad boy, Aaron Rodgers, for the prestigious Christmas Day slate.

Say what you will about his actions off the field, but from a gambling perspective, his actions on the field should have any bettor salivating over his potential outlook.

Rodgers is currently the MVP frontrunner for numerous reasons, and his play as of late has been the spark plug vaulting the Packers to the league’s best record and only clinched division title thus far. Across his last four games, the future hall-of-famer crafted a 13-0 TD/INT ratio while collectively notching a 127.7 passer rating.

Even aiming for those marks in Madden might be a stretch. Rodgers is showcasing this greatness in real life and before our eyes.

In the process, all four contests sailed well beyond the over/under — this after Green Bay had played to six straight under calls.

I’m expecting the overs streak to continue, especially with the banged-up defense Rodgers and Co. welcome next. After being ravaged by COVID, the Browns are still going to be down a bunch of starters, and even their biggest monster Myles Garrett (groin) is at less than 100 percent.

At full health, Cleveland possesses an above-average defensive unit. When you’re at far less than full health, though, how are you going to stop a group that is perennially among the NFL’s most potent?

Notably, this will be a home game for Rodgers, and when that’s the case, a crooked number on the scoreboard typically follows. To the naive, contrasting home-and-road numbers can be a strong indicator for success — or failure — and rarely does one have as illuminating splits as Rodgers has logged through his career.

As we’ve touched on before, No. 12 owns a lifetime passer rating that is considerably higher at Lambeau (108.8) than on the road (100.1). Rodgers’ consistency when taking the field in front of the local cheeseheads is just glaring.

In fact, across his 108 career starts in Green Bay (including postseason), the Pack are averaging more than 29 points per game. That’s a lot! And the product of quite a significant sample size. Yet here, the linesmakers have attached a low total.

This means that if the Packers simply clock in with around their average — which could be viewed as their floor given how hot Rodgers is right now — then so long as the Browns aren’t completely contained on the offensive side of the ball, there’s no reason this bout can’t go over.

Of course, there’s always that threat from the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” when hosting games in December but the conditions (around 30-degree temperatures) won’t be horrible. Besides, when the weather dips below 40 degrees, the returning Baker Mayfield has thrived.

The 2018 No. 1 overall pick has already played in 11 affairs (including playoffs) that featured temperatures of 40 degrees or less. Mayfield’s performance in those games was generally excellent, registering a nifty 105.9 rating. He also threw 20 TDs compared to only two picks.

Given Cleveland’s sense of urgency, needing a win for their playoff lives, I believe they can at least be game and somewhat hang around. All that’s probably needed is a couple of touchdowns, with the Pack doing the rest.

Thankfully, the Browns will have some other key weapons back on offense as well in Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper. Nick Chubb is always a difference maker.

Though this total has begun to shoot up at most places, I still recommend vying for that key number of 45. I bought a half to be protected from a 28-17/31-14 outcome. Pick: OVER 45 (-120)

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Lions +6.5/Falcons -6.5

All that needs to be stated is “Tim Boyle.”

The rare times you get to pounce on a backup QB that assuredly has no legit NFL ceiling — at least as a starter — you take note and weigh how bad said QB is.

In this instance, we can confidently arrive at the thought that Boyle does not have much of a future in this league. Thus, when he gets a rare start, take action.

Of course, the admission of Jared Goff to the COVID list is the only reason Boyle will be filing behind center. He received one previous start when Goff was sidelined with an oblique issue and the undrafted product out of Eastern Kentucky predictably disappointed, connecting on 15 of 23 passes for a comical 77 yards.

Detroit might be getting D’Andre Swift back but nothing matters when the signal-caller is hopeless. Boyle is putrid enough to bring down an entire offense that has actually shown signs of life the last month.

Either way, the Falcons are in an opportune spot, as a win keeps their postseason hopes alive, entering the week just one game back of the final NFC berth.

They can also comfortably lean more on the rush defense, which is definitely their strength on that side of the ball. With Detroit deploying Boyle, that probably points to an extra reliance on the run, something Atlanta is capable of limiting.

Meanwhile, the Falcons certainly haven’t been impressive with their offense but being at home in an important matchup is maybe what sparks Matt Ryan to one of his stronger showings. He’s getting more comfortable now at least in the absence of Calvin Ridley, considering how much Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage have come on. Pick: FALCONS -6 (-120)

Eagles -10 —> PK

Chargers -10.5 —> -0.5

Bills +2 —> +12

Two heavy 10ish-point favorites and an underdog compose our weekly teaser.

The Giants are on their third-string quarterback and will be on the road opposite a contending Eagles squad in a hostile environment. That’s, uh, not the ideal debut spot for rookie Jake Fromm.

So, taking advantage of that would seem wise considering Philadelphia absolutely needs this game, and appear to have things in order. Trying to capitalize on a similar situation for the Chargers also makes the cut for this bet, just having to put down the lowly Texans in Houston. They, too, are on a low-ceiling rookie QB.

There’s two. And if the Eagles and Chargers simply can take care of business in favorable matchups they have to have, we’ll look to New England, where the Bills can hopefully hang around in a big date.

Recent history suggests that will be the case. Since arriving in the NFL three years ago, Josh Allen has not fallen to the Patriots by more than 12 points, the number we are aiming to finish within for the sake of this bet. The first 2021 matchup between these two AFC East residents earlier this month was very competitive and I expect the same here.

Courtland Sutton Over/Under 2.5 Receptions

Whoa!, Talk about a fall from grace. That’s certainly the message being conveyed by this particular prop offering.

A mere total of three receptions will cash for Sutton over backers? The same wide-out that just put up more than 1,100 yards on 74 grabs as recent as two years ago?

Granted, the current iteration of Sutton has not looked great, managing only 50 catches for 670 yards with three games left. That’s not even three receptions per.

In defense of the former second-round draft pick, he is still trying to work his way back from a torn ACL that cost him all but one game of last season. Given his talents, however, perhaps it’s just a matter of time before Sutton re-emerges again.

If there’s a spot to identify where he can begin a turnaround, this might do the job. A rendezvous with new QB1 Drew Lock.

The concussion sustained by Teddy Bridgewater last week means Lock gets back on the field for his first start of the year and the 19th of his career.

Well, whenever Sutton has been active for a game (six) in which Lock attempted at least 10 passes, he was always busy with activity, evidenced by the 7.6 targets he would receive on average. That trend continued last week when Lock relieved Bridgewater, as Sutton garnered seven looks, his most in an outing since Week 6.

To me, there’s already a clear chemistry between Lock and Sutton. The latter certainly sees the field enough to justify putting this relationship to the test, playing more than 80 percent of Denver’s snaps in 13 of the 14 games. He’ll get his chances and cradle at least three balls. Pick: OVER 2.5 Receptions (-105)